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 • Modèle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnières du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Mars 2012

Mars 2012 - Avril 2012 - Mai 2012 - Juin 2012 - Juillet 2012 - Août 2012


Anomalie de la température à 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
01/02/2012-0.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.6 °C+0 °C+0.1 °C-0.5 °C-0.3 °C
31/01/2012-1.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C-0.4 °C-1.3 °C-1 °C-1.2 °C
30/01/2012+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.9 °C+0.6 °C+0.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.1 °C
29/01/2012+1 °C+0.6 °C+0.4 °C+0.9 °C+1.3 °C+0.6 °C+1.2 °C
28/01/2012+0.1 °C+0.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.1 °C+0 °C+0.1 °C+0.2 °C
27/01/2012-0.9 °C-0.4 °C-1 °C-0.3 °C-1 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C
26/01/2012-0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.2 °C+0.3 °C-0.2 °C+0.1 °C-0.2 °C
25/01/2012+0.1 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C+0 °C+0.3 °C+0.3 °C+0.9 °C
24/01/2012-0.5 °C-0.6 °C-0.8 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.2 °C
23/01/2012+0.5 °C+1 °C+1.1 °C+0.6 °C+0.3 °C+0.9 °C+0.3 °C
22/01/2012+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+0.3 °C+1 °C
21/01/2012-0.1 °C-0.2 °C-0.1 °C+0.2 °C+0.1 °C-0.4 °C-0.3 °C
20/01/2012-0.3 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C+0.1 °C+0 °C-0.9 °C-0.8 °C
19/01/2012+0.9 °C+0.6 °C+0.6 °C+0.7 °C+0.9 °C+0.7 °C+1 °C
18/01/2012+0.1 °C-0.1 °C-0.4 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C-0.2 °C+0.2 °C
17/01/2012-2.5 °C-2.1 °C-2.2 °C-1.3 °C-2.3 °C-2.7 °C-3 °C
16/01/2012+0.8 °C+0.7 °C+0.8 °C+0.5 °C+0.9 °C+0.8 °C+0.9 °C
15/01/2012-2.7 °C-1.3 °C-1.3 °C-1.5 °C-2.7 °C-2.1 °C-2.7 °C
14/01/2012+0.1 °C+0 °C-0.2 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C-0.1 °C+0 °C
13/01/2012-0.2 °C+0.1 °C-0.1 °C-0.1 °C-0.4 °C-0.1 °C-0.3 °C
12/01/2012+0.1 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+0.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.5 °C+0.7 °C
11/01/2012+2.1 °C+1.5 °C+2.5 °C+1.2 °C+1.9 °C+2.4 °C+2.4 °C
10/01/2012+2.2 °C+1.8 °C+2.4 °C+1 °C+2.3 °C+2.6 °C+2.8 °C
09/01/2012-1.6 °C-1.3 °C-1.1 °C-0.5 °C-1.5 °C-1.8 °C-2 °C
08/01/2012-0.2 °C+0 °C-0.3 °C+0 °C-0.1 °C-0.4 °C-0.4 °C
07/01/2012-0.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0 °C-0.5 °C+0.1 °C-0.3 °C
06/01/2012+0.7 °C+0.9 °C+1.3 °C+0.7 °C+0.4 °C+0.9 °C+0.3 °C
05/01/2012+0.4 °C+0.6 °C+0.3 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.5 °C+1.2 °C
04/01/2012+1.2 °C+0.9 °C+1.4 °C+0.8 °C+0.9 °C+1.1 °C+1 °C
03/01/2012+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+1.2 °C+0.8 °C+0.9 °C+1 °C+0.8 °C
Moyenne+0.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.2 °C+0.2 °C+0.1 °C+0.1 °C+0.1 °C

Anomalie de la température à 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
01/02/2012-0.7 °C-1.5 °C-1.2 °C-0.3 °C-0.5 °C-1.2 °C-0.8 °C
31/01/2012-1.1 °C-0.4 °C-0.6 °C-1 °C-1.4 °C-0.7 °C-1.1 °C
30/01/2012+0.6 °C+0.4 °C+0.9 °C+0.8 °C+0.3 °C+0.5 °C+0.2 °C
29/01/2012+1.2 °C+0.9 °C+0.5 °C+1 °C+1.6 °C+0.9 °C+1.3 °C
28/01/2012+0.2 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C-0.1 °C+0.2 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C
27/01/2012-1 °C-0.7 °C-1.2 °C-1.1 °C-1.1 °C-0.8 °C-0.9 °C
26/01/2012+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+0.1 °C+0.3 °C+0.4 °C+0.3 °C+0 °C
25/01/2012-0.2 °C+0.8 °C-0.2 °C-0.6 °C+0.1 °C+0.4 °C+0.8 °C
24/01/2012-0.4 °C-0.8 °C-1.1 °C-0.8 °C-0.2 °C-0.5 °C-0.1 °C
23/01/2012+0.2 °C+1.2 °C+1.2 °C+0.5 °C+0 °C+0.8 °C+0.2 °C
22/01/2012+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+0.2 °C+0 °C+0.8 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C
21/01/2012-0.8 °C-1 °C-0.9 °C-0.7 °C-0.7 °C-0.9 °C-0.7 °C
20/01/2012-0.9 °C-1.8 °C-1.6 °C-0.9 °C-0.6 °C-1.3 °C-0.8 °C
19/01/2012+1.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.8 °C+1.1 °C+1.6 °C+1 °C+1.4 °C
18/01/2012-0.4 °C-0.7 °C-1.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.2 °C-0.5 °C-0.2 °C
17/01/2012-2.9 °C-2.9 °C-2.5 °C-2.6 °C-2.9 °C-2.9 °C-3.3 °C
16/01/2012+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+0.7 °C+0.2 °C+0.6 °C+0.9 °C+0.7 °C
15/01/2012-2.8 °C-1.6 °C-1.4 °C-2.2 °C-3.2 °C-2 °C-2.6 °C
14/01/2012-0.5 °C-0.9 °C-0.9 °C+0.1 °C-0.2 °C-0.7 °C-0.5 °C
13/01/2012-0.5 °C+0.1 °C-0.2 °C-0.2 °C-0.6 °C-0.2 °C-0.3 °C
12/01/2012-0.3 °C+1 °C+0.3 °C-0.2 °C-0.4 °C+0.4 °C+0.4 °C
11/01/2012+2.7 °C+2.7 °C+2.8 °C+2.5 °C+2.5 °C+2.7 °C+2.5 °C
10/01/2012+2.4 °C+3.2 °C+2.7 °C+1.7 °C+2.2 °C+3 °C+2.7 °C
09/01/2012-1.7 °C-1.5 °C-1 °C-0.7 °C-1.7 °C-1.8 °C-2 °C
08/01/2012-0.9 °C-0.4 °C-0.7 °C-0.7 °C-0.7 °C-0.7 °C-0.8 °C
07/01/2012-0.2 °C+0.3 °C+0.3 °C-0.1 °C-0.6 °C+0.1 °C-0.3 °C
06/01/2012+0.9 °C+0.9 °C+1.2 °C+1.3 °C+0.7 °C+0.6 °C+0.1 °C
05/01/2012+0.3 °C+0.8 °C+0.1 °C-0.5 °C+0.3 °C+0.6 °C+1.1 °C
04/01/2012+1.2 °C+1.7 °C+1.4 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C+1.3 °C+1 °C
03/01/2012+1.7 °C+0.7 °C+1.3 °C+1.6 °C+1.5 °C+1.2 °C+1.1 °C
Moyenne+-0 °C+0.1 °C+0 °C+-0 °C+-0 °C+0.1 °C+0 °C

Anomalie de quantité de précipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
01/02/2012-24 %-61 %-31 %-20 %-17 %-38 %-9 %
31/01/2012-9 %+40 %-7 %+8 %-5 %+9 %-14 %
30/01/2012+28 %-32 %+0 %+30 %+25 %+6 %+14 %
29/01/2012+18 %+9 %+33 %+38 %+14 %+28 %+14 %
28/01/2012-6 %+36 %+13 %+7 %-4 %+19 %-3 %
27/01/2012+15 %+35 %+8 %-2 %+9 %+29 %+11 %
26/01/2012-19 %+41 %-1 %+0 %-17 %+10 %-3 %
25/01/2012-4 %+34 %+13 %+12 %-8 %+43 %+6 %
24/01/2012-12 %+44 %+18 %+3 %-13 %-5 %-28 %
23/01/2012+42 %-30 %+11 %+5 %+46 %+22 %+60 %
22/01/2012+33 %+18 %+14 %+32 %+27 %+42 %+12 %
21/01/2012+25 %-49 %+2 %-6 %+25 %+0 %+37 %
20/01/2012+5 %-13 %+55 %+0 %-4 %+10 %-5 %
19/01/2012+6 %+7 %+8 %-1 %+6 %+8 %+5 %
18/01/2012-9 %+17 %-13 %-25 %-6 %-16 %-9 %
17/01/2012-42 %+17 %+3 %-34 %-47 %-11 %-28 %
16/01/2012+1 %+19 %-16 %-5 %+3 %+3 %+12 %
15/01/2012-16 %+13 %-5 %-2 %-16 %+6 %+10 %
14/01/2012-27 %+9 %-28 %-18 %-28 %-15 %-8 %
13/01/2012+31 %+11 %+6 %+21 %+30 %+23 %+21 %
12/01/2012+26 %-34 %-4 %+34 %+29 %+3 %+22 %
11/01/2012-12 %-39 %-55 %-3 %+7 %-37 %-22 %
10/01/2012-32 %-51 %-38 %-42 %-24 %-37 %-23 %
09/01/2012+15 %+28 %+25 %+42 %+1 %+18 %-5 %
08/01/2012+17 %-9 %-1 %-17 %+20 %+11 %+38 %
07/01/2012+22 %+22 %+17 %+34 %+9 %+30 %+13 %
06/01/2012+39 %-32 %+2 %+21 %+42 %+10 %+42 %
05/01/2012+50 %+16 %+48 %+54 %+47 %+65 %+47 %
04/01/2012+27 %-21 %-3 %-1 %+37 %+23 %+39 %
03/01/2012-20 %-33 %+13 %-1 %-30 %-11 %-21 %
Moyenne+5.6 %+0.4 %+2.9 %+5.5 %+5.3 %+8.3 %+7.5 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
01/02/2012+7.7 hPa+5.9 hPa+7 hPa+7.9 hPa+7.9 hPa+6.6 hPa+6.4 hPa
31/01/2012-3.3 hPa-3.6 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.1 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.5 hPa-2.7 hPa
30/01/2012-1.3 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.3 hPa
29/01/2012-3 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-4.4 hPa-3.7 hPa-1.5 hPa-2.1 hPa
28/01/2012-4.4 hPa-3.8 hPa-4.6 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.2 hPa-4.1 hPa-3.8 hPa
27/01/2012-2.9 hPa-4.3 hPa-2.7 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.9 hPa-3.6 hPa
26/01/2012-0.1 hPa-2.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-0.8 hPa+0.9 hPa-1.4 hPa+0.1 hPa
25/01/2012-4.8 hPa-4 hPa-4.5 hPa-5.8 hPa-4.9 hPa-4.3 hPa-4.2 hPa
24/01/2012-2.4 hPa-4.1 hPa-2.8 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.8 hPa-3.4 hPa-2.2 hPa
23/01/2012-2 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-3 hPa-1.3 hPa-3.2 hPa
22/01/2012-5.2 hPa-4.3 hPa-4.5 hPa-6.1 hPa-5.3 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.4 hPa
21/01/2012+1.2 hPa+2.3 hPa+3.5 hPa+3.3 hPa+0 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.2 hPa
20/01/2012-3.2 hPa-4.2 hPa-2 hPa-0.6 hPa-3.3 hPa-4.1 hPa-4.5 hPa
19/01/2012-1.7 hPa-1 hPa-0.9 hPa-2.4 hPa-1.9 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.6 hPa
18/01/2012+4.4 hPa+2.1 hPa+3.8 hPa+5.7 hPa+4.5 hPa+3.1 hPa+3.6 hPa
17/01/2012+3.5 hPa-0.9 hPa+1.2 hPa+5.1 hPa+4.9 hPa+0.6 hPa+2.3 hPa
16/01/2012+4.1 hPa+4.7 hPa+3.9 hPa+3.5 hPa+3.9 hPa+4.5 hPa+4.6 hPa
15/01/2012+0.9 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.6 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.9 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.2 hPa
14/01/2012+5.5 hPa+3.3 hPa+4.9 hPa+5.9 hPa+5.7 hPa+4.1 hPa+4.6 hPa
13/01/2012-2.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.4 hPa-1.8 hPa-3.6 hPa-1.6 hPa-2.9 hPa
12/01/2012-2.1 hPa+0 hPa-0.9 hPa-3.2 hPa-2.9 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.6 hPa
11/01/2012+3.5 hPa+4.1 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.2 hPa+3.6 hPa+4.1 hPa+4.6 hPa
10/01/2012+6.5 hPa+6.6 hPa+5.8 hPa+5.2 hPa+6.2 hPa+6.7 hPa+6.8 hPa
09/01/2012-0.7 hPa-1.6 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.3 hPa-1.2 hPa-0.6 hPa
08/01/2012+1.5 hPa+0.9 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.9 hPa+0.6 hPa+1 hPa-0.4 hPa
07/01/2012-0.8 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.5 hPa
06/01/2012+2 hPa+3.7 hPa+3.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.4 hPa+3.1 hPa+2 hPa
05/01/2012-4.2 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.7 hPa-5.1 hPa-4.6 hPa-2.6 hPa-3.2 hPa
04/01/2012-0.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.5 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.6 hPa+0.7 hPa-0.4 hPa
03/01/2012+2.8 hPa+2.6 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.1 hPa+3.6 hPa+2.6 hPa+3.4 hPa
Moyenne+-0 hPa-0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa+0 hPa+-0 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.2 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS











Précisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont réalisés à partir des données de la période 1980-2003. Le modèle Coupled Forecast System est donc un modèle saisonnier qui est lancé une fois tous les jours avec les données de réanalyse du NCEP et des données du Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) pour les mers. Les runs ont environ 7 jours de retard puisque les données GODAS sont accessibles seulement à J+7.

 
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