• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Janvier 2017

Janvier 2017 - Fvrier 2017 - Mars 2017 - Avril 2017 - Mai 2017 - Juin 2017


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
02/12/2016 18Z+1.5 C+1 C+2.6 C+1.7 C+2 C+0.3 C+1.8 C
02/12/2016 12Z+1.3 C+0.2 C+2.3 C+1.9 C+1.3 C+0.3 C+0.4 C
02/12/2016 06Z+0.5 C+1 C+2.3 C+0.8 C+0.6 C+0.7 C+0.2 C
02/12/2016 00Z+1.6 C+1.9 C+1.8 C+0.8 C+1.4 C+2.5 C+3.3 C
01/12/2016 18Z-2.2 C-0.2 C+1.4 C-0.9 C-1.4 C-1.3 C-0.4 C
01/12/2016 12Z+3.1 C+2.2 C+3.1 C+1.4 C+3.6 C+2.3 C+3.7 C
01/12/2016 06Z-0.1 C-0.3 C-0.1 C+0.7 C+1 C-1.7 C-0.6 C
01/12/2016 00Z+1 C+1.4 C+0.8 C+1.3 C+2 C+0.6 C+2.2 C
30/11/2016 18Z+2.2 C+2.9 C+3.2 C+1.4 C+2.6 C+3.4 C+3.8 C
30/11/2016 12Z+0.8 C+0.3 C+2.2 C+0.6 C+1.3 C-0.6 C+1 C
30/11/2016 06Z-0.9 C+0.2 C-0.4 C-0.2 C+0.7 C-1 C+0.3 C
30/11/2016 00Z+0.8 C+0.9 C+1 C+0.9 C+1.6 C+0.5 C+2.2 C
29/11/2016 18Z+1.4 C+1 C+1.4 C+0.8 C+2.5 C+0.4 C+2.8 C
29/11/2016 12Z-0.8 C+0.3 C+1.2 C+0.8 C-0.4 C+0.2 C+0 C
29/11/2016 06Z+0.1 C+0.9 C+1.2 C-0.1 C+0.5 C+0.6 C+1.8 C
29/11/2016 00Z-3.3 C-3.7 C-3.7 C-1.8 C-2.1 C-7 C-4.8 C
28/11/2016 18Z-2.9 C-0.3 C-1.3 C-1.6 C-2.2 C-2.6 C-0.8 C
28/11/2016 12Z-2.1 C-0.1 C+0.7 C-1.2 C-1.5 C-0.7 C-1 C
28/11/2016 06Z-1.4 C+0.3 C+2 C+0.1 C-1 C-0.5 C-0.5 C
28/11/2016 00Z+1.3 C-0.9 C+0.7 C+1.2 C+2 C-2 C+0.5 C
27/11/2016 18Z+2 C+0.9 C+2.2 C+1.8 C+2.4 C+0.9 C+2.6 C
27/11/2016 12Z-2 C-1.8 C-1.1 C-0.9 C-1.7 C-4 C-3.3 C
27/11/2016 06Z-1 C+0.5 C-0.5 C-0.3 C+0.1 C-0.4 C+0.7 C
27/11/2016 00Z-0.9 C-0.4 C-0.8 C-0.4 C+0.2 C-1.4 C+0.2 C
26/11/2016 18Z-1.3 C-1.4 C-0.6 C-0.5 C-1 C-2.6 C-2.9 C
26/11/2016 12Z+1.8 C+1.6 C+2.9 C+2 C+1.7 C+1.3 C+2.4 C
26/11/2016 06Z+2.1 C+2.3 C+3.3 C+1.5 C+1.6 C+2.9 C+2.7 C
26/11/2016 00Z+0.6 C+-0 C+0 C+0.7 C+1.2 C-0.6 C+1.1 C
25/11/2016 18Z+1.9 C+1 C+3.8 C+2.4 C+1.6 C+0.6 C+0.3 C
25/11/2016 12Z+1.3 C-0.6 C+0.5 C+1.2 C+2.2 C-1.9 C+0 C
Moyenne+0.2 C+0.4 C+1.1 C+0.5 C+0.8 C-0.4 C+0.7 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
02/12/2016 18Z+0.5 C-1.7 C-0.3 C+0.1 C+0.9 C-0.6 C+0.4 C
02/12/2016 12Z+1.3 C-2 C+0.6 C+0.7 C+1.6 C-0.3 C-0.3 C
02/12/2016 06Z+1.5 C-0.9 C+1.5 C+1.2 C+1.8 C+0.9 C+1 C
02/12/2016 00Z+1.1 C+1 C+0.5 C-0.9 C+0.7 C+2.2 C+1.9 C
01/12/2016 18Z+1.6 C-1.7 C+0.6 C+1.3 C+2.1 C+0.6 C+1 C
01/12/2016 12Z+0.6 C+0.9 C+0.9 C-0.8 C+0.5 C+1.2 C+1.7 C
01/12/2016 06Z-0.2 C-1.1 C-0.1 C+0.6 C+-0 C-0.7 C-1.2 C
01/12/2016 00Z+0.7 C-0.4 C+0.3 C+0.2 C+0.9 C+0.4 C+1 C
30/11/2016 18Z+1.5 C+1.6 C+2.1 C+0.2 C+1.3 C+2.5 C+2.9 C
30/11/2016 12Z+0.9 C-1.6 C+0.9 C+0.8 C+1.1 C+0.1 C+0.6 C
30/11/2016 06Z-0.3 C-1.5 C-0.7 C-0.6 C-0.2 C-1 C-0.5 C
30/11/2016 00Z+1 C+0.3 C+0.6 C-0.3 C+0.8 C+0.8 C+1.2 C
29/11/2016 18Z+1 C+1 C+1.6 C+0.8 C+0.7 C+1.4 C+1 C
29/11/2016 12Z+0.7 C-1.3 C+0.5 C-0.2 C+0.3 C+0.4 C+0.6 C
29/11/2016 06Z-0.6 C-1.2 C-0.1 C-0.3 C-0.5 C-0.3 C+0.3 C
29/11/2016 00Z-5 C-4.6 C-5.7 C-4.5 C-4.8 C-5.9 C-5.5 C
28/11/2016 18Z-2.2 C-1.4 C-1.5 C-2.5 C-2.5 C-1.3 C-1.5 C
28/11/2016 12Z-0.2 C-1.3 C+1 C+-0 C-0.5 C-0.2 C-0.4 C
28/11/2016 06Z+2 C-1.2 C+1 C+1.3 C+2.3 C+1.2 C+2.5 C
28/11/2016 00Z-2.1 C-2.6 C-2 C-1.2 C-2.1 C-2.8 C-2.6 C
27/11/2016 18Z+0.4 C-0.3 C+0.6 C+-0 C+0.1 C+0.2 C+0.2 C
27/11/2016 12Z-4 C-4.1 C-3.3 C-3.5 C-4.2 C-4.3 C-4.6 C
27/11/2016 06Z-0.1 C-0.9 C-0.5 C-0.9 C-0.1 C-0.3 C+0.4 C
27/11/2016 00Z-1.7 C-2.3 C-1.8 C-1.6 C-1.6 C-1.7 C-2 C
26/11/2016 18Z-2.4 C-3 C-1.8 C-2.4 C-2.3 C-2.5 C-2.2 C
26/11/2016 12Z+1.7 C+1.1 C+2.3 C+2 C+1.4 C+1.3 C+1.5 C
26/11/2016 06Z+1.5 C+1.2 C+1.9 C+0.5 C+1.2 C+1.9 C+2 C
26/11/2016 00Z+0 C-1.3 C-0.9 C-0.5 C+0.5 C-0.9 C+0.2 C
25/11/2016 18Z+1 C-0.5 C+1.3 C+1.2 C+0.9 C+0.6 C-0.2 C
25/11/2016 12Z-1.3 C-2.2 C-1.7 C-0.6 C-1.4 C-2.2 C-2.1 C
Moyenne+-0 C-1.1 C-0.1 C-0.3 C+-0 C-0.3 C-0.1 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
02/12/2016 18Z+69.1 %-60.6 %+37.8 %+0.6 %+89.6 %+69.7 %+3 %
02/12/2016 12Z+0.4 %-18.4 %+59.6 %+42.4 %-13.5 %+21.3 %-45.1 %
02/12/2016 06Z-13.2 %-19.6 %+42.7 %+0.9 %-16.1 %+73 %-12.7 %
02/12/2016 00Z+81.1 %+78.7 %+24.6 %+48 %+49.7 %+71.8 %+26.9 %
01/12/2016 18Z-45 %-53.2 %-69.6 %-78.1 %-63.6 %-70.3 %-80.9 %
01/12/2016 12Z+44.7 %+123.6 %+68.3 %+51.7 %+33.6 %+112.9 %+40.7 %
01/12/2016 06Z-28.9 %-71 %-65.8 %-53 %-33.1 %-44.2 %-55.4 %
01/12/2016 00Z+5.9 %-16.8 %-30.6 %-0.7 %+17.7 %+12.5 %-13.3 %
30/11/2016 18Z+42.4 %+37.4 %+14.3 %+16 %+18.6 %+45.3 %+2.8 %
30/11/2016 12Z-2.4 %+35.1 %-62.9 %-37.9 %-20.5 %-21.2 %-37.4 %
30/11/2016 06Z-44.8 %-32 %-63.5 %-67.7 %-38.2 %-24.3 %-56.1 %
30/11/2016 00Z-38.3 %-48.8 %-36.7 %-17 %-25.7 %-21.1 %-49.8 %
29/11/2016 18Z+54.4 %-65.5 %-23.4 %+5.8 %+32.6 %+43.6 %+3.2 %
29/11/2016 12Z-13.6 %+21.7 %+20.2 %+67.1 %+6.1 %-36.5 %-53.7 %
29/11/2016 06Z-26.6 %+299.5 %-46.9 %-39.9 %-57.6 %+61.7 %-42.1 %
29/11/2016 00Z-39 %+45.7 %-44 %-42 %-32.4 %-26.2 %-41.7 %
28/11/2016 18Z-43.7 %+103.8 %-9.9 %-44 %-53.3 %+5.7 %-60.3 %
28/11/2016 12Z-44.9 %-72.3 %-85.9 %-70.7 %-62.2 %-63.4 %-54.7 %
28/11/2016 06Z-88.1 %-15.9 %-75.9 %-65 %-87.3 %-77.6 %-95.6 %
28/11/2016 00Z+21 %-91 %-1.1 %-56.4 %+28.5 %+80.2 %+105.3 %
27/11/2016 18Z+63 %-41.7 %+59.5 %+56.2 %+46.6 %+66.8 %+28.2 %
27/11/2016 12Z+39.4 %+65.4 %+48.2 %+0.7 %+34.5 %+45.6 %+12.7 %
27/11/2016 06Z-23 %+45.6 %-50.7 %-28.5 %-44.8 %-5.3 %-20.4 %
27/11/2016 00Z-21.4 %-72.2 %-21.3 %-20 %+8.7 %-1.8 %-24.2 %
26/11/2016 18Z+36.7 %+28.5 %+0.2 %+14.4 %+4.6 %+67.2 %-3 %
26/11/2016 12Z-15.5 %+156 %-19 %+3.7 %-33.7 %+59 %+8.6 %
26/11/2016 06Z+14.2 %+81.5 %+45.5 %+39 %-9.2 %+21.9 %-11.7 %
26/11/2016 00Z+71.6 %+31 %+61.5 %+39.6 %+2.4 %+91.4 %-4.9 %
25/11/2016 18Z+97.7 %-15.6 %+95.3 %+96.7 %+67.1 %+135.1 %+64.8 %
25/11/2016 12Z+82.9 %-65.8 %-30.1 %+5 %+94.4 %+57.1 %+60.1 %
Moyenne+7.9 %+13.1 %-5.3 %-4.4 %-1.9 %+25 %-13.6 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
02/12/2016 18Z+1.5 hPa+5.3 hPa+3.6 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.6 hPa+3.8 hPa+1.9 hPa
02/12/2016 12Z-4.3 hPa-1.7 hPa-4.3 hPa-6.7 hPa-3.3 hPa-3.1 hPa-2 hPa
02/12/2016 06Z-2.8 hPa-1.9 hPa-5 hPa-4.7 hPa-1.1 hPa-3.1 hPa-1.5 hPa
02/12/2016 00Z-7.1 hPa-4.5 hPa-7.3 hPa-7.8 hPa-5.9 hPa-6.6 hPa-6 hPa
01/12/2016 18Z+8.9 hPa+7.4 hPa+3.4 hPa+6.7 hPa+11.2 hPa+7 hPa+9.2 hPa
01/12/2016 12Z-8.7 hPa-4.2 hPa-7.3 hPa-9.6 hPa-9.5 hPa-5.9 hPa-7 hPa
01/12/2016 06Z+5.3 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.9 hPa+4.8 hPa+5.9 hPa+4.7 hPa+5.7 hPa
01/12/2016 00Z+2.2 hPa+4.1 hPa+2.8 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.7 hPa+3.4 hPa+2.9 hPa
30/11/2016 18Z-4.4 hPa-0.2 hPa-4.7 hPa-7.1 hPa-4.3 hPa-2.5 hPa-2.8 hPa
30/11/2016 12Z+6.9 hPa+8 hPa+3.8 hPa+4.7 hPa+8.3 hPa+7.4 hPa+8.2 hPa
30/11/2016 06Z+8.8 hPa+7.1 hPa+6.8 hPa+8.9 hPa+9.4 hPa+7.4 hPa+8.5 hPa
30/11/2016 00Z+2.7 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.5 hPa+2.5 hPa+2.6 hPa+2.5 hPa+2.6 hPa
29/11/2016 18Z-2.3 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.5 hPa-3.1 hPa-3.1 hPa-0.7 hPa-1.9 hPa
29/11/2016 12Z-2.1 hPa-0.4 hPa-3.9 hPa-5.5 hPa-0.9 hPa-1.8 hPa-0.4 hPa
29/11/2016 06Z-0.6 hPa-1.4 hPa-4.3 hPa-2.8 hPa+2 hPa-2.2 hPa+0 hPa
29/11/2016 00Z-1.5 hPa-5.8 hPa-2.6 hPa+0.9 hPa-0.6 hPa-3.4 hPa-2.4 hPa
28/11/2016 18Z-4.8 hPa-7.2 hPa-8.7 hPa-6.4 hPa-2.1 hPa-7 hPa-4.9 hPa
28/11/2016 12Z+3.3 hPa+2.2 hPa-0.5 hPa+2.6 hPa+4.7 hPa+1.8 hPa+3.1 hPa
28/11/2016 06Z+8.6 hPa+8.1 hPa+3.4 hPa+5.2 hPa+11.2 hPa+7.2 hPa+9.7 hPa
28/11/2016 00Z-2 hPa-1.7 hPa+2 hPa+2.9 hPa-3.9 hPa-0.9 hPa-4.9 hPa
27/11/2016 18Z-4.1 hPa-0.7 hPa-2 hPa-4.5 hPa-4.4 hPa-2 hPa-3.3 hPa
27/11/2016 12Z-7.7 hPa-7.6 hPa-8.1 hPa-6.8 hPa-6.3 hPa-7.2 hPa-6.8 hPa
27/11/2016 06Z+1.7 hPa+0.1 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.3 hPa+2.9 hPa+0 hPa+1.6 hPa
27/11/2016 00Z-0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa-0.4 hPa+1 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.9 hPa
26/11/2016 18Z-7.4 hPa-6.8 hPa-9.2 hPa-8.9 hPa-5.5 hPa-7.3 hPa-6 hPa
26/11/2016 12Z-4.7 hPa-3.2 hPa-6.3 hPa-8.1 hPa-3.2 hPa-4.1 hPa-3.1 hPa
26/11/2016 06Z-11.4 hPa-7.9 hPa-13.2 hPa-16.6 hPa-9.7 hPa-10 hPa-8.6 hPa
26/11/2016 00Z-8.1 hPa-6 hPa-7.3 hPa-9.5 hPa-7.4 hPa-6.7 hPa-6.4 hPa
25/11/2016 18Z-5.9 hPa-0.9 hPa-4.1 hPa-7.7 hPa-6 hPa-2.9 hPa-4 hPa
25/11/2016 12Z-1 hPa+0.3 hPa+2.1 hPa+1.2 hPa-2 hPa+0.7 hPa-1.3 hPa
Moyenne-1.4 hPa-0.4 hPa-2.2 hPa-2.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.7 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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