• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Juin 2016

Juin 2016 - Juillet 2016 - Aot 2016 - Septembre 2016 - Octobre 2016 - Novembre 2016


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
23/05/2016 12Z-0.1 C+0.8 C+1.3 C+1.3 C+0.3 C-0.2 C+1.4 C
23/05/2016 06Z+0.4 C+0.3 C+0.9 C+1.6 C+1.4 C-0.8 C+1.9 C
23/05/2016 00Z+1.2 C+1.2 C+3 C+2.9 C+1.9 C+-0 C+1.4 C
22/05/2016 18Z+0.8 C+1.3 C+2.4 C+1.8 C+1.6 C+0.3 C+2.4 C
22/05/2016 12Z-0.6 C+0.5 C+1.4 C+1.3 C-0.5 C-0.4 C+0.3 C
22/05/2016 06Z-1.4 C-0.9 C-1.2 C+1.2 C-0.5 C-3.1 C-0.6 C
22/05/2016 00Z-1.1 C-1.6 C-1.4 C+1.3 C+0.1 C-3.4 C-0.2 C
21/05/2016 18Z-0.4 C-1 C+0.2 C+1.8 C+0.2 C-1.9 C+0.5 C
21/05/2016 12Z+2.6 C+1.6 C+3 C+2.8 C+3.2 C+1.3 C+3.7 C
21/05/2016 06Z+1.3 C+0.4 C+2.9 C+2.8 C+1.7 C-0.3 C+0.8 C
21/05/2016 00Z-0.9 C+0.5 C+0.9 C+0.6 C-0.4 C-0.7 C+1 C
20/05/2016 18Z+0.9 C+0.9 C+2.2 C+2.1 C+1.4 C+0.4 C+1.6 C
20/05/2016 12Z-0.7 C-0.6 C-0.4 C+1 C+0.1 C-2.2 C+0.3 C
20/05/2016 06Z+1.2 C+1.6 C+1.8 C+2 C+2 C+0.6 C+3.1 C
20/05/2016 00Z-0.4 C-0.8 C+0.2 C+1.9 C+0.6 C-2.3 C-0.1 C
19/05/2016 18Z-2.2 C-1.5 C-1.8 C+1.1 C-1.1 C-4.1 C-1.6 C
19/05/2016 12Z-0.8 C-0.3 C+0.7 C+0.6 C-0.3 C-1.1 C+0.9 C
19/05/2016 06Z+0.1 C+0.2 C+0.4 C+1.9 C+1.1 C-1.3 C+1.3 C
19/05/2016 00Z-0.2 C+0.7 C+0.4 C+0.8 C+0.4 C-0.7 C+2.1 C
18/05/2016 18Z+0.3 C+0 C+1.3 C+2.1 C+0.9 C-1.5 C+0.5 C
18/05/2016 12Z+0.1 C-0.3 C+1 C+0.8 C+0.8 C-1.3 C+0.9 C
18/05/2016 06Z-0.8 C+0.1 C+0.3 C+1 C-0.5 C-1.7 C+0.2 C
18/05/2016 00Z-1.7 C-1.1 C-1 C+0.7 C-0.9 C-2.7 C-0.5 C
17/05/2016 18Z+3.2 C+2.5 C+5.1 C+3.1 C+3.4 C+2.6 C+4.2 C
17/05/2016 12Z+0.5 C+0.6 C+1.4 C+1.9 C+1.3 C-0.6 C+1.6 C
17/05/2016 06Z-1.2 C-2.2 C-1.9 C+0.9 C+0 C-3.8 C+0.1 C
17/05/2016 00Z-1.5 C-0.4 C-0.5 C+0.6 C-0.9 C-2.5 C-0.9 C
16/05/2016 18Z+0.3 C+0.2 C+0.8 C+1.6 C+1.2 C-1.3 C+1.2 C
16/05/2016 12Z+0.4 C+1 C+2.3 C+1.8 C+1.1 C-0.4 C+1.5 C
16/05/2016 06Z-1.4 C-0.5 C-1.3 C+0.1 C-0.2 C-2.4 C-0.1 C
Moyenne-0.1 C+0.1 C+0.8 C+1.5 C+0.6 C-1.2 C+1 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
23/05/2016 12Z+1.7 C+1 C+1.9 C+2 C+1.6 C+1.3 C+1 C
23/05/2016 06Z+1.5 C+0.3 C+0.6 C+0.1 C+1.9 C+0.8 C+1.7 C
23/05/2016 00Z+2.4 C+0.8 C+3.1 C+3.1 C+2.8 C+1.4 C+0.9 C
22/05/2016 18Z+1.9 C+1.7 C+1.8 C+1.1 C+1.7 C+2.1 C+1.9 C
22/05/2016 12Z+0.5 C+1.8 C+2.7 C+0.6 C+-0 C+1.7 C+0 C
22/05/2016 06Z-0.8 C-2 C-2.1 C-1.1 C-0.2 C-2 C-1.1 C
22/05/2016 00Z-0.2 C-2.8 C-2.2 C-0.8 C+0.6 C-2 C-0.4 C
21/05/2016 18Z+0.5 C-1.4 C-0.2 C+0.5 C+0.5 C-0.5 C+0.2 C
21/05/2016 12Z+4 C+1.1 C+2.9 C+3.1 C+4.4 C+2.8 C+3.4 C
21/05/2016 06Z+2.4 C-0.1 C+2.4 C+2.9 C+2.5 C+1.4 C+0.7 C
21/05/2016 00Z+0.2 C+0.8 C+0.7 C-0.1 C-0.1 C+0.8 C+0.5 C
20/05/2016 18Z+2.2 C+0.6 C+1.9 C+2.2 C+1.9 C+1.9 C+1.4 C
20/05/2016 12Z+0.1 C-1.7 C-1.2 C-0.4 C+0.5 C-0.9 C-0.2 C
20/05/2016 06Z+2 C+1.9 C+1.6 C+0.7 C+2.2 C+2.4 C+2.7 C
20/05/2016 00Z+0.4 C-1.2 C-0.6 C+0.4 C+0.8 C-0.9 C-0.5 C
19/05/2016 18Z-1.7 C-2.9 C-2.9 C-0.6 C-1.1 C-3.4 C-2.3 C
19/05/2016 12Z+0.2 C+0.2 C+0.6 C-0.6 C+0.2 C+0.4 C+0.2 C
19/05/2016 06Z+1.2 C-0.2 C+0.3 C+1 C+1.5 C+0.2 C+0.9 C
19/05/2016 00Z+0.8 C+0.2 C+0 C-0.8 C+1.2 C+0.7 C+1.8 C
18/05/2016 18Z+1.2 C-0.5 C+1.7 C+2 C+1.5 C-0.1 C+0.1 C
18/05/2016 12Z+1 C-0.6 C+1 C+0.1 C+1.1 C+0.1 C+0.6 C
18/05/2016 06Z-0.3 C+0.1 C+0.1 C-0.9 C-0.5 C-0.1 C-0.4 C
18/05/2016 00Z-1.2 C-2.1 C-1.9 C-1.1 C-0.7 C-1.5 C-1.1 C
17/05/2016 18Z+4.6 C+3.4 C+5.8 C+4.1 C+4.2 C+4.6 C+3.9 C
17/05/2016 12Z+1.3 C+0.4 C+1.4 C+1.1 C+1.5 C+0.8 C+1.2 C
17/05/2016 06Z-0.1 C-3.4 C-2.8 C-0.8 C+0.9 C-2.3 C-0.1 C
17/05/2016 00Z-1.4 C-1.3 C-0.9 C-0.6 C-1.3 C-1.5 C-1.8 C
16/05/2016 18Z+0.9 C-1 C-0.2 C+0.9 C+1 C+-0 C+0.7 C
16/05/2016 12Z+1.3 C+0.5 C+2.2 C+1.4 C+1.1 C+1 C+0.8 C
16/05/2016 06Z-0.8 C-1.1 C-2 C-1.9 C-0.1 C-1.1 C-0.5 C
Moyenne+0.9 C-0.3 C+0.5 C+0.6 C+1.1 C+0.3 C+0.5 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
23/05/2016 12Z+26.5 %-59.6 %+39.4 %-0.1 %-26.1 %+0.6 %-34.1 %
23/05/2016 06Z+85.9 %-93.5 %+58.8 %+65.7 %+70.7 %+8.9 %+24.6 %
23/05/2016 00Z-39.7 %-87.4 %-42.6 %-88.9 %-43.9 %-62.6 %-64.1 %
22/05/2016 18Z-17.9 %-73.5 %-36.2 %-7.2 %-18.2 %-7.7 %-5.4 %
22/05/2016 12Z+58.2 %-0.6 %+65.5 %-27.5 %+12.8 %-2.9 %-36.7 %
22/05/2016 06Z+50.4 %-76.3 %+53.1 %-60.2 %+19.1 %-25.5 %+6.9 %
22/05/2016 00Z+73.8 %+6.4 %+72.2 %-49.5 %+40.1 %+79 %+104 %
21/05/2016 18Z+79.5 %+8.2 %+28.8 %-74.1 %-2.1 %+32.4 %+13.7 %
21/05/2016 12Z-25 %-72.2 %-16.1 %-69.7 %-30 %+13.6 %-46.1 %
21/05/2016 06Z+3.8 %-41.5 %-38.7 %+10.5 %-59.7 %-32.8 %-60.2 %
21/05/2016 00Z+29.8 %-64.9 %+52.1 %+0.7 %-5 %-4.1 %-12.3 %
20/05/2016 18Z-35.2 %-81 %+22 %+1.3 %-45.5 %-12.3 %-12.3 %
20/05/2016 12Z+53.4 %-67 %+55.4 %-38.9 %+18.6 %+3.7 %-6.9 %
20/05/2016 06Z+62.6 %-53.7 %-8.5 %+67.4 %+36.9 %-10.7 %-2.5 %
20/05/2016 00Z+1.2 %+6.2 %-6.2 %-86.7 %-19.1 %+29.1 %+1.6 %
19/05/2016 18Z+47.9 %+50.4 %-22.3 %-23.5 %+38.2 %-19.4 %-25.3 %
19/05/2016 12Z+45.5 %-17.1 %+27.3 %-20.8 %+30.4 %-2.7 %-24.4 %
19/05/2016 06Z+59 %-26.9 %+96.8 %-52.8 %+21.4 %+37.1 %-0.7 %
19/05/2016 00Z+31.2 %-67.2 %-30.8 %-75 %-4.1 %+13.4 %+21.1 %
18/05/2016 18Z+58.5 %-67.3 %+27.1 %-48.2 %-24.2 %+13.5 %+3.7 %
18/05/2016 12Z+25.7 %-82.3 %-16.9 %-27 %+49.1 %-56.6 %-29.6 %
18/05/2016 06Z+96 %-75.6 %+52.3 %+4.8 %+44.1 %-25.3 %-18.7 %
18/05/2016 00Z+27.9 %-47.7 %+41.8 %-31.6 %+9.1 %-17.1 %-12.7 %
17/05/2016 18Z-13.1 %-98.1 %-40.5 %-12.1 %-46.7 %-59.3 %-45.1 %
17/05/2016 12Z-3.9 %-78.1 %+66 %+25.4 %-19.2 %-50.5 %-38.9 %
17/05/2016 06Z+55.5 %+104.6 %+86.7 %+9.6 %+60.7 %+99.9 %+47.2 %
17/05/2016 00Z-52.6 %-86.3 %+6.4 %-84 %-57.8 %-48.6 %-42 %
16/05/2016 18Z-14.2 %-30.2 %+42 %-27.5 %-66.8 %-16.8 %-52.2 %
16/05/2016 12Z-59.8 %-87.3 %-45.6 %-56.6 %-58.3 %-23.5 %-42.6 %
16/05/2016 06Z+70.4 %+22.7 %+108 %-4.2 %+28.1 %+31 %-21.1 %
Moyenne+26 %-44.6 %+23.2 %-26 %-1.6 %-3.9 %-13.7 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
23/05/2016 12Z+2.9 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.5 hPa+2.6 hPa+4 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.4 hPa
23/05/2016 06Z-1 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.2 hPa-2 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.5 hPa
23/05/2016 00Z+5.6 hPa+3 hPa+1.8 hPa+4.6 hPa+6.6 hPa+3.8 hPa+5.2 hPa
22/05/2016 18Z+0.8 hPa+1 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.1 hPa
22/05/2016 12Z+0.8 hPa+0.7 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.1 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.1 hPa
22/05/2016 06Z+-0 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.2 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.6 hPa
22/05/2016 00Z-2.8 hPa-2.4 hPa-2.2 hPa-1 hPa-2.8 hPa-2.9 hPa-3.7 hPa
21/05/2016 18Z-1.2 hPa-1.7 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.4 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.7 hPa-2.2 hPa
21/05/2016 12Z+3.4 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.9 hPa+3.4 hPa+4.4 hPa+2.3 hPa+3 hPa
21/05/2016 06Z+3 hPa+1.9 hPa+0 hPa+2 hPa+4 hPa+1.9 hPa+3.3 hPa
21/05/2016 00Z+1.7 hPa+1.7 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.6 hPa
20/05/2016 18Z+1.9 hPa+1.6 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.8 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.8 hPa
20/05/2016 12Z+0.8 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.7 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.1 hPa
20/05/2016 06Z+0.1 hPa+1.4 hPa+0 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.8 hPa
20/05/2016 00Z+0.3 hPa-1.6 hPa-1.5 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.1 hPa-1.1 hPa-0.4 hPa
19/05/2016 18Z-0.1 hPa-1.2 hPa+1 hPa+1.5 hPa-0.8 hPa-0.3 hPa-0.8 hPa
19/05/2016 12Z+0.2 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.6 hPa-0.4 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.6 hPa
19/05/2016 06Z+0.9 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.2 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.5 hPa
19/05/2016 00Z+2.2 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.6 hPa+2.3 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.6 hPa
18/05/2016 18Z+1.6 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.6 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.2 hPa
18/05/2016 12Z+2.2 hPa+3.1 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.9 hPa+1.8 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.9 hPa
18/05/2016 06Z-0.6 hPa+-0 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.7 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.1 hPa-0.3 hPa
18/05/2016 00Z+1.8 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.4 hPa
17/05/2016 18Z+1.5 hPa+2.3 hPa-0.5 hPa+1 hPa+2.1 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.2 hPa
17/05/2016 12Z+2.4 hPa+1.2 hPa+-0 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.9 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.5 hPa
17/05/2016 06Z-3 hPa-1.8 hPa-1.7 hPa-2 hPa-3.4 hPa-2.2 hPa-3.3 hPa
17/05/2016 00Z+4.3 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.7 hPa+4.5 hPa+4.2 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.6 hPa
16/05/2016 18Z+2.5 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.5 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.3 hPa+1.1 hPa+2 hPa
16/05/2016 12Z+3.7 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.8 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.7 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.5 hPa
16/05/2016 06Z-0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.3 hPa+0.4 hPa+0.1 hPa
Moyenne+1.2 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.3 hPa+0.8 hPa+1 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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