• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Dcembre 2017

Octobre 2017 - Novembre 2017 - Dcembre 2017 - Janvier 2018 - Fvrier 2018 - Mars 2018


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2017 00Z+0.2 C+0.4 C+0.4 C+0 C+0.7 C-0.3 C+0.8 C
19/09/2017 18Z+2.9 C+3.2 C+4 C+1.8 C+2.6 C+3.3 C+2.9 C
19/09/2017 12Z+2.6 C+1.9 C+2.8 C+2.2 C+3.3 C+1.9 C+3 C
19/09/2017 06Z-2 C-2.1 C-2.6 C-1 C-0.1 C-4.5 C-2 C
19/09/2017 00Z+4.1 C+2.9 C+3.9 C+3 C+4.4 C+3.1 C+4.6 C
18/09/2017 18Z+0.1 C+0.7 C+0.5 C+0.2 C+0.2 C-0.3 C+0.1 C
18/09/2017 12Z-1.7 C+0.1 C+2.3 C-0.1 C-1.6 C-1 C-2 C
18/09/2017 06Z+1 C+2.2 C+1.9 C+1.2 C+1.4 C+1.6 C+2.3 C
18/09/2017 00Z-0.1 C+0.5 C+1.9 C+1.3 C+0.1 C-0.7 C-0.6 C
17/09/2017 18Z+0.7 C-0.5 C+0.6 C+0.8 C+1.6 C-1 C+0.6 C
17/09/2017 12Z-1.3 C-2.3 C-1.9 C-0.5 C+0.3 C-3.9 C-2.7 C
17/09/2017 06Z+1.6 C+1 C+1.7 C+1.3 C+2.5 C+0.4 C+1.4 C
17/09/2017 00Z+1.8 C+2.5 C+3.4 C+1.3 C+2 C+2.6 C+1.9 C
16/09/2017 18Z+3.5 C+2.3 C+3.3 C+3.2 C+4.4 C+1.8 C+3.1 C
16/09/2017 12Z-2.2 C-2.2 C-3.1 C-1.3 C-1.1 C-5 C-3.3 C
16/09/2017 06Z-0.2 C-0.3 C-0.1 C+0.4 C+0.4 C-1.9 C-0.5 C
16/09/2017 00Z+1.4 C+1.9 C+2.3 C+0.8 C+1.7 C+2 C+2.1 C
15/09/2017 18Z+1.7 C+1.6 C+1.1 C+0.5 C+1.8 C+1.6 C+3.6 C
15/09/2017 12Z+1 C+1.2 C+1.9 C+1.3 C+1.9 C+1.3 C+1.3 C
15/09/2017 06Z+1.9 C+1 C+1.3 C+2.2 C+3.4 C+0.4 C+1.9 C
15/09/2017 00Z-1.1 C-1.6 C-1.2 C+0.2 C-0.8 C-2.9 C-3.9 C
14/09/2017 18Z+0.7 C+0.1 C+0.8 C+1 C+1.3 C-0.7 C+0.7 C
14/09/2017 12Z-2.4 C-2.4 C-2.3 C-1 C-0.9 C-4.6 C-3.1 C
14/09/2017 06Z+0.5 C-0.4 C+1.3 C+1.2 C+0.8 C-1.5 C+0.2 C
14/09/2017 00Z-1.1 C-1.8 C-0.6 C+0.1 C-0.1 C-3.9 C-1.7 C
13/09/2017 18Z+0.7 C+1.1 C+0.8 C+0.4 C+1.1 C+0.4 C+1.4 C
13/09/2017 12Z-2.2 C+0.2 C+0.5 C-1.2 C-2.2 C-0.4 C-3.1 C
13/09/2017 06Z-2.4 C-1.6 C-1.7 C-0.2 C-1.4 C-3.5 C-2.6 C
13/09/2017 00Z-2.2 C-0.6 C-1.2 C-0.8 C-1.1 C-2.7 C-1.7 C
12/09/2017 18Z-2.2 C-2.5 C-1.6 C-1 C-1.3 C-5.2 C-3.7 C
Moyenne+0.2 C+0.2 C+0.7 C+0.6 C+0.8 C-0.8 C+0 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2017 00Z-1.2 C-1.5 C-1.9 C-2 C-1.3 C-0.9 C-0.6 C
19/09/2017 18Z+2.9 C+1 C+2.4 C+0.7 C+3.1 C+2.9 C+3.4 C
19/09/2017 12Z+1.6 C+1.2 C+1.4 C+0.4 C+1.6 C+2 C+2.3 C
19/09/2017 06Z-1.7 C-3 C-2.6 C-2.1 C-1.6 C-2.5 C-2.5 C
19/09/2017 00Z+1.9 C+3.1 C+3.1 C+1.9 C+1.3 C+2.8 C+1.6 C
18/09/2017 18Z+-0 C-1.4 C-1.2 C-1 C+0.2 C-0.3 C+1 C
18/09/2017 12Z+0.4 C-1.2 C+1 C+1.2 C+0.1 C+0 C-0.6 C
18/09/2017 06Z+2.4 C+0.4 C+1.5 C+1.1 C+2.5 C+2 C+2.7 C
18/09/2017 00Z+2.1 C-0.5 C+2 C+1.8 C+1.9 C+1.2 C+0.6 C
17/09/2017 18Z+0.7 C-1.8 C-0.6 C+0.6 C+1.2 C-0.6 C+0.2 C
17/09/2017 12Z-4.1 C-4.3 C-4.3 C-3.8 C-3.7 C-4.5 C-4.2 C
17/09/2017 06Z+1.1 C-0.5 C+0.3 C+0.8 C+1.3 C+0.4 C+0.8 C
17/09/2017 00Z+1.7 C+0.9 C+2.1 C+0.7 C+1.6 C+2.2 C+2.3 C
16/09/2017 18Z+2.7 C+1.4 C+2.7 C+2.5 C+3 C+2.1 C+3.2 C
16/09/2017 12Z-3.4 C-4.6 C-4.2 C-3.4 C-2.9 C-4.3 C-3.3 C
16/09/2017 06Z-0.5 C-2.5 C-1.1 C-0.1 C+0.2 C-1.6 C-0.9 C
16/09/2017 00Z+0.6 C+0.7 C+1.3 C-0.7 C+0.3 C+1.4 C+2.3 C
15/09/2017 18Z-0.2 C-0.3 C-1.7 C-1.7 C-0.4 C+0.4 C+1.3 C
15/09/2017 12Z+2.2 C-1.1 C+2.4 C+1 C+2.2 C+1.4 C+2.2 C
15/09/2017 06Z+2.5 C+0 C+1.7 C+2.6 C+2.5 C+0.8 C+1 C
15/09/2017 00Z-2.6 C-4.6 C-3.3 C-1.7 C-2.2 C-4.2 C-3.9 C
14/09/2017 18Z-0.4 C-1.1 C-0.1 C-0.6 C-0.7 C-0.2 C-0.5 C
14/09/2017 12Z-3 C-4.1 C-3.4 C-3.8 C-2.5 C-3.7 C-2.9 C
14/09/2017 06Z-1.2 C-2.4 C-1.3 C-0.6 C-1.5 C-2 C-2.1 C
14/09/2017 00Z-3.4 C-4.4 C-3.6 C-3.2 C-3.3 C-4.3 C-3.7 C
13/09/2017 18Z-0.4 C-1 C-1.3 C-1.5 C-0.2 C-0.2 C+0.4 C
13/09/2017 12Z-1.5 C-1.6 C-0.7 C-1.7 C-1.9 C-1 C-2.1 C
13/09/2017 06Z-2.4 C-2.4 C-3.1 C-1.6 C-2.1 C-3.3 C-3.2 C
13/09/2017 00Z-3.3 C-2.6 C-3.4 C-3.8 C-3.3 C-2.9 C-2.8 C
12/09/2017 18Z-4.4 C-4.9 C-3.8 C-2.9 C-4.2 C-5.3 C-5.3 C
Moyenne-0.4 C-1.4 C-0.7 C-0.7 C-0.3 C-0.7 C-0.4 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2017 00Z+33.5 %+38.5 %+61.2 %+3.2 %+14.7 %+36.3 %+1.8 %
19/09/2017 18Z-17 %+321.7 %-58.1 %-34.4 %-64.1 %-25.1 %-69.2 %
19/09/2017 12Z+28.8 %-0.2 %+59.1 %+3 %-4.3 %-1.1 %-24.5 %
19/09/2017 06Z-17.5 %+15 %-29.3 %-46.7 %-19.2 %-0.4 %-29.9 %
19/09/2017 00Z+119.4 %-71.2 %-5.4 %+66.3 %+97.8 %+37.8 %+72.7 %
18/09/2017 18Z-8.8 %+198 %-36.7 %+29.3 %-37.7 %+33 %-55.7 %
18/09/2017 12Z+3.1 %-46.6 %+2.6 %-28.1 %-43.4 %+39.8 %-12.3 %
18/09/2017 06Z-63 %+14.8 %-79.2 %-54.7 %-71.8 %-50.1 %-65.5 %
18/09/2017 00Z-11.8 %-16.8 %-19 %-46.3 %-22.9 %-2 %-24.5 %
17/09/2017 18Z-41.3 %-15.8 %-77.6 %-62.8 %-41.3 %-57.6 %-36.5 %
17/09/2017 12Z-12 %-71.4 %-21.5 %-69.1 %-16.8 %-19.5 %-15.7 %
17/09/2017 06Z-32.6 %+54.8 %-74.5 %-50.9 %-13.3 %-32.6 %-41.2 %
17/09/2017 00Z-13.1 %+88.1 %-8.9 %-14.4 %-24.1 %+4.3 %-31.1 %
16/09/2017 18Z-25.9 %+18.5 %-37.1 %-52.4 %-30.8 %+10.1 %-21.1 %
16/09/2017 12Z-23.1 %+139.5 %+11.4 %-49.8 %-29.7 %+69.9 %-43.3 %
16/09/2017 06Z-12.2 %-68.7 %-7.1 %-45.2 %-6.2 %+43 %-11 %
16/09/2017 00Z-14.5 %+127.9 %+3.3 %+23.1 %-9.1 %+115.8 %+9.1 %
15/09/2017 18Z+83.9 %+76.8 %+28.3 %+9.4 %+26.6 %+69 %-8.9 %
15/09/2017 12Z-80.1 %+10.1 %-94.9 %-39.2 %-73 %-42.5 %-72.3 %
15/09/2017 06Z-71 %-97.6 %-90.2 %-84.4 %-52.5 %-75.2 %-47 %
15/09/2017 00Z-42.2 %-22.6 %-57.2 %-59.4 %-46.7 %-10.3 %-10.3 %
14/09/2017 18Z+53.4 %-41.6 %-34.8 %+15.3 %+63.7 %+42 %+21 %
14/09/2017 12Z-52.3 %+20.9 %-43.7 %-50.7 %-60.6 %-39.9 %-45.7 %
14/09/2017 06Z+46.8 %-79.2 %-19.8 %-28.8 %+22.6 %+42 %+47.3 %
14/09/2017 00Z+95.2 %-47 %+156.8 %+45.6 %+52.7 %+117.3 %+44.7 %
13/09/2017 18Z+67.5 %+70.6 %+150.8 %+32.8 %+16.7 %+124.4 %+23.7 %
13/09/2017 12Z-2.8 %+42.9 %+13.7 %-7.5 %-16.7 %+29.4 %+4.5 %
13/09/2017 06Z-21.2 %+40.3 %+48.8 %-13.5 %-19.9 %+22.5 %+23.3 %
13/09/2017 00Z-14 %+55.9 %+11.3 %-20.3 %-41.2 %+15.3 %-29.3 %
12/09/2017 18Z+34.2 %-53.3 %+87.3 %+4.6 %+18.3 %+25.4 %+5 %
Moyenne-0.4 %+23.4 %-5.3 %-20.9 %-14.4 %+17.4 %-14.7 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
20/09/2017 00Z-4.6 hPa-3.7 hPa-3.8 hPa-4.1 hPa-4.2 hPa-4.3 hPa-4.3 hPa
19/09/2017 18Z+4.1 hPa+4.8 hPa-0.7 hPa+1.6 hPa+6.7 hPa+3.6 hPa+5.6 hPa
19/09/2017 12Z-1.7 hPa+1.8 hPa-0.5 hPa-3.6 hPa-2.3 hPa+0.4 hPa-0.3 hPa
19/09/2017 06Z+5.3 hPa+2.8 hPa+4.6 hPa+7 hPa+5.8 hPa+4 hPa+4.2 hPa
19/09/2017 00Z-2.8 hPa+2.3 hPa+-0 hPa-4.8 hPa-4 hPa+0.7 hPa-2.1 hPa
18/09/2017 18Z-2.2 hPa-0.2 hPa-3.6 hPa-4.9 hPa-1.4 hPa-1.3 hPa-0.1 hPa
18/09/2017 12Z+4.5 hPa+4 hPa+1.4 hPa+3.8 hPa+6.2 hPa+3.4 hPa+4.6 hPa
18/09/2017 06Z+4.2 hPa+4.1 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.1 hPa+5.8 hPa+3.3 hPa+4.9 hPa
18/09/2017 00Z+3.2 hPa+3.2 hPa+1.2 hPa+1.9 hPa+4.4 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.7 hPa
17/09/2017 18Z+9 hPa+9.2 hPa+8.4 hPa+9.3 hPa+9.1 hPa+9.3 hPa+8.9 hPa
17/09/2017 12Z+5.6 hPa+3.2 hPa+5.4 hPa+9.4 hPa+5.9 hPa+4.3 hPa+4.1 hPa
17/09/2017 06Z+7.1 hPa+6.2 hPa+5.6 hPa+7.1 hPa+7.4 hPa+6.6 hPa+6.7 hPa
17/09/2017 00Z-3.9 hPa-2.9 hPa-6.7 hPa-6.1 hPa-2.4 hPa-4.2 hPa-2.6 hPa
16/09/2017 18Z+3.2 hPa+4.1 hPa+3.4 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.8 hPa+4.3 hPa+3.3 hPa
16/09/2017 12Z-0.4 hPa-2.4 hPa-1 hPa+0.8 hPa+0 hPa-1.3 hPa-1.1 hPa
16/09/2017 06Z+0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.8 hPa+0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.1 hPa
16/09/2017 00Z-8.9 hPa-6 hPa-10 hPa-10.8 hPa-8.4 hPa-7.9 hPa-7.6 hPa
15/09/2017 18Z-1.8 hPa-1.2 hPa-1.4 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.1 hPa-1.9 hPa-2.1 hPa
15/09/2017 12Z+8.3 hPa+10.1 hPa+5 hPa+4.6 hPa+9.4 hPa+8.5 hPa+9.8 hPa
15/09/2017 06Z+13 hPa+11.7 hPa+12.3 hPa+12.9 hPa+12.6 hPa+12.4 hPa+12.2 hPa
15/09/2017 00Z+5.2 hPa+2.2 hPa+5.2 hPa+7.1 hPa+5.9 hPa+3.5 hPa+4 hPa
14/09/2017 18Z+3.6 hPa+5.5 hPa+5.3 hPa+3.6 hPa+2.9 hPa+5.1 hPa+3.6 hPa
14/09/2017 12Z-0.6 hPa-2.2 hPa-1.9 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.2 hPa-1.1 hPa-1 hPa
14/09/2017 06Z+1.1 hPa+2.1 hPa+3.3 hPa+2.1 hPa+0.5 hPa+2.1 hPa+0.4 hPa
14/09/2017 00Z-10 hPa-7 hPa-6.4 hPa-7.5 hPa-10.9 hPa-7.5 hPa-9.9 hPa
13/09/2017 18Z-8.7 hPa-4.3 hPa-6 hPa-9.4 hPa-8.8 hPa-6.2 hPa-7.1 hPa
13/09/2017 12Z-7.4 hPa-6.3 hPa-10.2 hPa-9.6 hPa-5.9 hPa-8 hPa-5.5 hPa
13/09/2017 06Z-2.2 hPa-5.2 hPa-1.7 hPa-0.1 hPa-1.8 hPa-3.6 hPa-3.6 hPa
13/09/2017 00Z-4.2 hPa-5.1 hPa-5 hPa-2.5 hPa-3.8 hPa-4.9 hPa-4.6 hPa
12/09/2017 18Z-0.1 hPa-1.2 hPa+-0 hPa+1.5 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.5 hPa-1 hPa
Moyenne+0.6 hPa+1 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.5 hPa+1 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.8 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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