• Modle CFS - Coupled Forecast System

Tendances saisonnires du CFS (Coupled Forecast System)
pour Aot 2017

Dcembre 2017 - Janvier 2018 - Fvrier 2018 - Mars 2018 - Avril 2018 - Mai 2018


Anomalie de la temprature 2m

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
31/07/2017 18Z-1.1 C+0.3 C+1.3 C+0.9 C-0.6 C-0.6 C+0.3 C
31/07/2017 12Z-2.2 C-0.5 C-0.4 C+0.4 C-1.3 C-2.4 C-1 C
31/07/2017 06Z-1.1 C+0.6 C+0.4 C+0.3 C-0.6 C-0.7 C+0.7 C
31/07/2017 00Z-0.7 C-0.4 C-0.4 C+0.7 C+0.4 C-1.5 C+0.5 C
30/07/2017 18Z-1.9 C+0.1 C+1.2 C+0.2 C-1.1 C-1.3 C-0.4 C
30/07/2017 12Z-3.2 C-0.7 C-1.7 C-0.6 C-2.3 C-3.1 C-1.3 C
30/07/2017 06Z-1.9 C+-0 C-1 C+0.1 C-1.1 C-1.7 C-0.1 C
30/07/2017 00Z-1.9 C-0.4 C-1.2 C+0.5 C-0.5 C-2.3 C-0.2 C
29/07/2017 18Z-3.5 C-1 C-2.4 C-0.5 C-2.5 C-4 C-2.1 C
29/07/2017 12Z-2.6 C-0.1 C-1.6 C-0.4 C-1.6 C-2.3 C-0.3 C
29/07/2017 06Z-3.3 C-1.6 C-1.8 C-0.4 C-2.1 C-4 C-2.2 C
29/07/2017 00Z-0.5 C+0.6 C+1.1 C+1 C+0.2 C-0.2 C+0.9 C
28/07/2017 18Z-2.1 C-0.8 C-1.3 C+0.4 C-0.9 C-3 C-0.6 C
28/07/2017 12Z-1.6 C+1 C+0.4 C+0.5 C-0.8 C-0.7 C+0.8 C
28/07/2017 06Z-0.7 C+0.1 C+0.2 C+1.1 C+0.4 C-1.3 C+0.6 C
28/07/2017 00Z-2.7 C-0.8 C-1.8 C+0.1 C-1.4 C-3.4 C-1.1 C
27/07/2017 18Z-3.2 C-0.9 C-1.5 C-0.5 C-2.7 C-3 C-1.4 C
27/07/2017 12Z-2.3 C+0.1 C-0.7 C+0 C-1.3 C-2.3 C-1.1 C
27/07/2017 06Z-2.5 C-0.4 C-0.9 C+0.3 C-1.7 C-2.9 C-1.5 C
27/07/2017 00Z-3 C-1 C-1.6 C-0.5 C-1.9 C-3.2 C-0.7 C
26/07/2017 18Z-2.5 C-1.2 C-1.1 C+0.1 C-1.3 C-3.8 C-1.7 C
26/07/2017 12Z-2.9 C-1.2 C-1.3 C+0.1 C-2.1 C-3.8 C-2.4 C
26/07/2017 06Z-2.2 C+0.1 C-0.3 C+0 C-1.4 C-2 C-0.4 C
26/07/2017 00Z-2.4 C-0.1 C-1.3 C-0.4 C-1.5 C-2.2 C+0.4 C
25/07/2017 18Z-2.7 C-0.8 C-0.7 C+0.2 C-1.6 C-3.6 C-2 C
25/07/2017 12Z-2.3 C-0.6 C-1 C+0.1 C-1.1 C-3.3 C-1.1 C
25/07/2017 06Z-0.1 C+1.4 C+2.3 C+1.1 C+0.3 C-0.6 C+0.7 C
25/07/2017 00Z-2.4 C-0.7 C-0.9 C+0.4 C-1.3 C-3.4 C-1.4 C
24/07/2017 18Z+1.2 C+1.2 C+2.7 C+2.5 C+2.3 C-0.2 C+2 C
24/07/2017 12Z-1.5 C+0.2 C-0.8 C+0.6 C-0.4 C-2.1 C+0.1 C
Moyenne-2 C-0.3 C-0.5 C+0.3 C-1.1 C-2.3 C-0.5 C

Anomalie de la temprature 850hPa

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
31/07/2017 18Z-0.1 C+1.3 C+1.9 C-0.1 C-0.6 C+1.3 C+-0 C
31/07/2017 12Z-1.4 C+-0 C-0.1 C-1.3 C-1.5 C-0.6 C-1.4 C
31/07/2017 06Z-0.3 C+1.1 C+0.9 C-1 C-0.5 C+1.2 C+0.5 C
31/07/2017 00Z+0.2 C-0.4 C-0.1 C-0.7 C+0.5 C+0.2 C+0.3 C
30/07/2017 18Z-0.3 C+0.4 C+1.5 C-0.3 C-0.9 C+0.9 C-0.1 C
30/07/2017 12Z-2.5 C+0.1 C-1.3 C-2.6 C-2.4 C-1.2 C-1.9 C
30/07/2017 06Z-0.8 C+0.5 C-0.4 C-1.7 C-1 C+0.3 C+-0 C
30/07/2017 00Z-0.2 C-1 C-0.7 C-0.5 C-0.1 C-0.5 C+0.1 C
29/07/2017 18Z-2.7 C-0.9 C-2.4 C-2.7 C-2.5 C-2 C-2.5 C
29/07/2017 12Z-1.7 C+0.6 C-1 C-2.4 C-1.7 C-0.4 C-0.4 C
29/07/2017 06Z-2.6 C-2 C-1.8 C-1.7 C-2.2 C-2.5 C-2.5 C
29/07/2017 00Z+1.3 C+0.6 C+1.8 C+0.3 C+1.1 C+1.8 C+1.4 C
28/07/2017 18Z-1.2 C-1.4 C-1.6 C-1.8 C-0.9 C-1.2 C-0.7 C
28/07/2017 12Z+-0 C+1 C+0.9 C-1 C-0.5 C+1.2 C+0.8 C
28/07/2017 06Z+0.3 C-0.6 C+0.1 C-0.4 C+0.4 C+0.6 C+1.1 C
28/07/2017 00Z-1.8 C-1.8 C-1.8 C-1.9 C-1.5 C-1.8 C-1.1 C
27/07/2017 18Z-2.4 C-0.4 C-1.5 C-3 C-2.5 C-1.2 C-1.8 C
27/07/2017 12Z-1.3 C-0.7 C-1 C-1.8 C-1.4 C-0.8 C-1.1 C
27/07/2017 06Z-1.3 C-0.6 C-0.2 C-0.9 C-1.3 C-1 C-1.9 C
27/07/2017 00Z-2.1 C-0.7 C-1.9 C-2.8 C-1.9 C-1.5 C-1.1 C
26/07/2017 18Z-1.9 C-1.4 C-1.1 C-1.7 C-1.8 C-2.1 C-1.8 C
26/07/2017 12Z-2.3 C-2.1 C-1.8 C-1.8 C-2.3 C-2.5 C-2.8 C
26/07/2017 06Z-0.9 C-0.1 C-0.3 C-1.2 C-1 C-0.3 C-0.6 C
26/07/2017 00Z-0.8 C-0.6 C-1.3 C-2.5 C-0.7 C-0.4 C+0.4 C
25/07/2017 18Z-2 C-1.5 C-0.7 C-1.3 C-1.8 C-2.1 C-2.3 C
25/07/2017 12Z-1 C-1.6 C-0.7 C-1.1 C-1 C-1.4 C-0.9 C
25/07/2017 06Z+1.3 C+0.5 C+2.7 C+1.2 C+0.9 C+1.4 C+1 C
25/07/2017 00Z-1.8 C-1.6 C-1.3 C-1.6 C-1.5 C-2 C-1.7 C
24/07/2017 18Z+3.4 C+0.3 C+2.8 C+2.2 C+3.6 C+2.3 C+2.8 C
24/07/2017 12Z-0.4 C-0.1 C-0.4 C-0.9 C-0.3 C-0.4 C+0.1 C
Moyenne-0.9 C-0.4 C-0.4 C-1.2 C-0.9 C-0.5 C-0.6 C

Anomalie de quantit de prcipitations

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
31/07/2017 18Z-65.5 %-95 %-82 %-38.5 %-66 %-15.7 %-37.2 %
31/07/2017 12Z+84.4 %-46.5 %+9.4 %-2.2 %+12.3 %+71.3 %+38.9 %
31/07/2017 06Z-1.7 %+88.1 %-37.7 %+26.9 %-18.9 %+30.8 %-28.2 %
31/07/2017 00Z+99.9 %-66.3 %+87.2 %+23.8 %+3.9 %+7.4 %-28.9 %
30/07/2017 18Z-46.8 %-79.4 %-22 %-27.5 %-69.5 %-4.6 %-38.3 %
30/07/2017 12Z-16 %-5.1 %+56.6 %+4 %-38.5 %+46.3 %-20.1 %
30/07/2017 06Z+94 %+49 %+97.2 %+61.9 %-17.7 %+192.9 %+82.2 %
30/07/2017 00Z-22.6 %-22.3 %+54.8 %-54.1 %-72.4 %+72.8 %+2.6 %
29/07/2017 18Z+23.3 %+84.9 %+27.4 %+47.2 %+31 %+92 %+46.9 %
29/07/2017 12Z+85.5 %+16.2 %+71.1 %+14.5 %+23.8 %+50.5 %+24.5 %
29/07/2017 06Z+0.2 %-38.9 %-7.2 %-12.6 %-26.1 %+20.7 %-9.5 %
29/07/2017 00Z+129.9 %-7.8 %+19.1 %+30.4 %-20.7 %+4.5 %-21.3 %
28/07/2017 18Z+55.3 %+122.8 %+22.2 %-11.8 %+11.7 %+47.8 %+14.9 %
28/07/2017 12Z+58.1 %-75.3 %+37.4 %-39.9 %+10.1 %-10.3 %-16.1 %
28/07/2017 06Z-1.3 %+73 %-8.6 %-41.1 %+70.4 %-6.2 %+79.6 %
28/07/2017 00Z-77.3 %+80 %-93.4 %+33 %-9.6 %+54.5 %+103.3 %
27/07/2017 18Z-9.8 %+112.6 %+50.2 %+53 %+181.8 %+97.6 %-29 %
27/07/2017 12Z-50.9 %+4.9 %-48.1 %-67.1 %+70 %-10.1 %-37.4 %
27/07/2017 06Z+28.7 %+112.3 %-22.7 %-28.9 %+84.9 %-19.9 %+97.6 %
27/07/2017 00Z-87.3 %+73.5 %+27.6 %+25.1 %+35.1 %+8.2 %-4.9 %
26/07/2017 18Z+87.3 %+34 %+17 %-34.1 %+136.7 %+52.4 %-29.2 %
26/07/2017 12Z-63.4 %-87.9 %-54 %-30.1 %+44.3 %+16.4 %+99 %
26/07/2017 06Z+326.8 %+18.9 %+55.1 %+63 %+76.5 %-30.9 %+194.8 %
26/07/2017 00Z+262.3 %+115.7 %+25.2 %+61.9 %+83.6 %+43.7 %-49 %
25/07/2017 18Z+132.1 %-16.4 %-36.2 %-33.4 %+16.9 %+10.3 %+49.5 %
25/07/2017 12Z+208.6 %-33.1 %-29.5 %+314.7 %+111.6 %+22.8 %+58.8 %
25/07/2017 06Z-59.5 %-15.4 %+1.2 %+19.5 %-10.4 %+11.9 %+259 %
25/07/2017 00Z+19.5 %-1.4 %-22.4 %+222.4 %+61.6 %+1.6 %-52.2 %
24/07/2017 18Z+45.6 %-46.8 %-37.8 %-36.6 %-44.4 %+52 %+148.8 %
24/07/2017 12Z+8.8 %-77.6 %-37.4 %+150.8 %-14.1 %Moyenne+41.6 %+9 %+4 %+23.1 %+21.9 %+31.4 %+31 %

Anomalie de pression

Date du runParisMarseilleBordeauxBrestLilleLyonStrasbourg
31/07/2017 18Z+3.6 hPa+3 hPa+2.4 hPa+3 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.2 hPa+3.6 hPa
31/07/2017 12Z+1.2 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.1 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.5 hPa
31/07/2017 06Z+2.5 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.4 hPa+1.7 hPa+3 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.5 hPa
31/07/2017 00Z+1.4 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.1 hPa+1 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.2 hPa
30/07/2017 18Z+4.4 hPa+3.3 hPa+1.6 hPa+3.6 hPa+4.9 hPa+3.3 hPa+4.4 hPa
30/07/2017 12Z+3 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.7 hPa+2.7 hPa+2.6 hPa+2.2 hPa+2.8 hPa
30/07/2017 06Z-1.2 hPa-0.5 hPa-1.4 hPa-2.4 hPa-1.2 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.8 hPa
30/07/2017 00Z+3.8 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.6 hPa+4.1 hPa+4.7 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.7 hPa
29/07/2017 18Z+0.8 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.8 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.2 hPa
29/07/2017 12Z+2.3 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.5 hPa+1.2 hPa+2 hPa+2 hPa+2.5 hPa
29/07/2017 06Z+3.6 hPa+3.4 hPa+3.5 hPa+3.2 hPa+2.7 hPa+3.7 hPa+3.8 hPa
29/07/2017 00Z+1.8 hPa+1.7 hPa-0.2 hPa+0.1 hPa+2.6 hPa+1.4 hPa+2.5 hPa
28/07/2017 18Z+1.9 hPa+0.7 hPa+0.6 hPa+1.5 hPa+2.3 hPa+1 hPa+1.7 hPa
28/07/2017 12Z+1.2 hPa+0.5 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.8 hPa+1.4 hPa
28/07/2017 06Z+3.4 hPa+2.6 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.7 hPa+4.1 hPa+2.4 hPa+3.6 hPa
28/07/2017 00Z+2 hPa+0.2 hPa+0.9 hPa+3.3 hPa+2.3 hPa+0.7 hPa+1.2 hPa
27/07/2017 18Z-1.3 hPa+0.1 hPa-1.2 hPa-2.2 hPa-2 hPa-0.5 hPa-0.8 hPa
27/07/2017 12Z+3.2 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.6 hPa+3.4 hPa+2.1 hPa+3 hPa
27/07/2017 06Z+2.9 hPa+1.7 hPa+1.7 hPa+2.5 hPa+2.8 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.9 hPa
27/07/2017 00Z+0.9 hPa+1.6 hPa+1 hPa-0.3 hPa+0.1 hPa+1.8 hPa+1.5 hPa
26/07/2017 18Z+2.7 hPa+1.4 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.3 hPa+2.8 hPa+2 hPa+2.3 hPa
26/07/2017 12Z+4.2 hPa+2.2 hPa+3.1 hPa+4.5 hPa+4 hPa+2.9 hPa+3.2 hPa
26/07/2017 06Z+1.4 hPa+1.9 hPa+0.8 hPa+0.2 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.9 hPa+2.3 hPa
26/07/2017 00Z-0.2 hPa+0.3 hPa-0.4 hPa-0.9 hPa-0.5 hPa+0.1 hPa+0.2 hPa
25/07/2017 18Z+3.6 hPa+1.6 hPa+1.6 hPa+3.6 hPa+3.4 hPa+2.4 hPa+2.9 hPa
25/07/2017 12Z+2.7 hPa+0.7 hPa+-0 hPa+3.1 hPa+3.7 hPa+0.8 hPa+2 hPa
25/07/2017 06Z+2.5 hPa+2.4 hPa+0.5 hPa+1.5 hPa+3 hPa+2.4 hPa+3 hPa
25/07/2017 00Z+1.5 hPa+-0 hPa+0.3 hPa+1.1 hPa+1.6 hPa+0.5 hPa+0.9 hPa
24/07/2017 18Z+3.9 hPa+3.8 hPa+1.2 hPa+2.6 hPa+4.7 hPa+3.5 hPa+4.6 hPa
24/07/2017 12Z+1.7 hPa+0.6 hPa+0.9 hPa+2.1 hPa+2 hPa+1 hPa+1.4 hPa
Moyenne+2.2 hPa+1.4 hPa+0.9 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.2 hPa+1.6 hPa+2.2 hPa

Cartes d'anomalie pour le dernier run de CFS

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Prcisions
Les calculs d'anomalies sont raliss partir des donnes de la priode 1982-2010. Le modle Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) est donc un modle saisonnier qui est lanc une 4 tous les jours avec les donnes de ranalyse du NCEP. Les runs ont environ 1 jour de retard puisque le temps de calcul du modèle est très long.

 

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